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#1 jhannes bjrn

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Posted 02 February 2012 - 16:15

Facebook kemur brtt hlutabrfamarkainn og margir tla sr a gra strt essu fyrirtki. g held hins vegar a margir eigi eftir a tapa strt egar hlutabrfin seljast uppsprengdu veri. tt einn milljarur einstaklinga veri Facebook 2012 er straumurinn til eirra a hgjast og ekki lklegt a sumir su ornir leiir essu endalausa babli um ekki neitt. Vi sjum hva gerist. Tekjur af auglsingum eru ekki a aukast a neinu marki og lka htt vi a fyrirtki sem hugsanlega selur upplsingar um viskiptavini sna fari einhverjum punkti yfir striki og meiri httar bad PR fi marga til ess a yfirgefa svi. Kannski hef g rangt fyrir mr og vi eigu efir a sj ntt Google-i. En g held ekki.

#2 Spinni

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Posted 02 February 2012 - 16:26

Sll. J g hef veri arna og er httur. etta er endalaust kellingavl og ekkert af viti. kv Spinni.

#3 Kjosandi

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Posted 02 February 2012 - 17:51

g er ekki alveg a tta mig hvaa tekjur Facebook er a hafa. Einhverjar auglsingatekjur, en engar skriftatekjur. g held a ef eir fri skrift myndu allir htta hvort e er. etta snst um skyndigra. Eru einhverjar lkur a upphafi su allir voa jkvir? .e. a kaupa strax og selja svo viku ea mnui seinna? g hef enga tr essu til lengdar. g segi eins og Buffett, ef skilur ekki reksturinn ttu a lta hann vera. Myndi Buffett kaupa hlut? Nei.
Kveja fr hinum tpska slenska kjsenda!

#4 jhannes bjrn

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Posted 02 February 2012 - 18:38

Posted Image


Vri gaman a sj slenska knnun essari spurningu.

http://blogs.wsj.com...acebook-filing/

Edited by jhannes bjrn, 02 February 2012 - 18:43.


#5 Agent Smith

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Posted 02 February 2012 - 18:46

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Vri gaman a sj slenska knnun essari spurningu.

http://blogs.wsj.com...acebook-filing/

a vri gaman a s hvort facebook mli slf tmann sem notendur eia vi a skoa ummli vina sinna.

I'd like to share a revelation during my time here. It came to me when I tried to classify your species. I realized that you're not actually mammals. Every mammal on this planet instinctively develops a natural equilibrium with the surrounding environment but you humans do not. You move to an area and you multiply and multiply until every natural resource is consumed. The only way you can survive is to spread to another area. There is another organism on this planet that follows the same pattern. Do you know what it is? A virus

 

Good advice is always certain to be ignored, but that's no reason not to give it.

 


#6 Gore Vidal

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Posted 02 February 2012 - 18:55

g er eiginlega alveg httur a psta, en hangi arna samt. Hugsa a a eigi vi um flesta, a pstar su a minnka.

etta TimeLine dt var alveg ti htt, allt lagi tl svosem en alveg gjrsamlega irrelevant vi styrkleika facebook.

etta TimeLine sorp tti a vera eitthva revolution en a hefur ekki nokkur maur huga essu.

En g held a facebook geti valta yfir hvern sem er, gtu til dmis valta yfir ebay me v a opna auction eiginleika, valta yfir paypal me v a opna facepay mguleika, valta yfir google me v a setja upp leitarvl osfv osfv..

eir halda The One Ring to Rule Them All
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#7 jhannes bjrn

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Posted 02 February 2012 - 19:01

g er eiginlega alveg httur a psta, en hangi arna samt. Hugsa a a eigi vi um flesta, a pstar su a minnka.

etta TimeLine dt var alveg ti htt, allt lagi tl svosem en alveg gjrsamlega irrelevant vi styrkleika facebook.

etta TimeLine sorp tti a vera eitthva revolution en a hefur ekki nokkur maur huga essu.

En g held a facebook geti valta yfir hvern sem er, gtu til dmis valta yfir ebay me v a opna auction eiginleika, valta yfir paypal me v a opna facepay mguleika, valta yfir google me v a setja upp leitarvl osfv osfv..
eir halda The One Ring to Rule Them All
Posted Image



Facebook hefur ekkert nema skrifendur til ess a takast vi essi fyrirtki. Enga reynslu ea ekkingu eirra svium. au haggast aldrei vegna Facebook.

#8 Timoshenko

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Posted 02 February 2012 - 19:03

etta eftir a vera meirihttar bla held g.

#9 siff

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Posted 02 February 2012 - 22:15

Facebook kemur brtt hlutabrfamarkainn og margir tla sr a gra strt essu fyrirtki.

g held hins vegar a margir eigi eftir a tapa strt egar hlutabrfin seljast uppsprengdu veri.

tt einn milljarur einstaklinga veri Facebook 2012 er straumurinn til eirra a hgjast og ekki lklegt a sumir su ornir leiir essu endalausa babli um ekki neitt. Vi sjum hva gerist.

Tekjur af auglsingum eru ekki a aukast a neinu marki og lka htt vi a fyrirtki sem hugsanlega selur upplsingar um viskiptavini sna fari einhverjum punkti yfir striki og meiri httar bad PR fi marga til ess a yfirgefa svi.

Kannski hef g rangt fyrir mr og vi eigu efir a sj ntt Google-i. En g held ekki.


okkar nja heimi eru hlutirnir ekki mjg langlfir. Tknibyltingin hreifir hlutina ansi hratt til og fr. MySpace var einusinni vinslasti social vefurinn, hvar er hann dag, hvergi. stan er a a kom 17 ra gutti me betri lausn, nst verur guttinn 15 ra og svo 12. Annars m vera a hgt s a gra essu til skamms tma en g mundi aldrei treysta etta til lengri tma liti.
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#10 Kjosandi

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Posted 02 February 2012 - 22:37

Svo m ekki gleyma frttum sem essum ea essum.

Vi fyrri frttinni eru vibrgin, neeeeeii hva hann var heppinn /vitlaus. Vi seinni frttinni eru vibrgin, v hva hann var heppinn/snjall a taka dlnum.

a eru einmitt svona frttir sem afvegaleiir flk og a fer a tra a facebook s komi til a vera. etta er svipa og egar blstjri Donalds Trumps segir honum hva hann eigi a kaupa.

Sumt er bla, g held a facebook s lfseig bla. a m vel vera a facebook lifi eitthva fram. En skn fyrirtkisins verur ekki eins hr. Amazon er anna dmi um blu sem breyttist alvru fyrirtki. Rekstur Amazon er einfaldur, hann gengur t a selja augljsa vrur. Varan hj facebook er ekki eins augljs.
Kveja fr hinum tpska slenska kjsenda!

#11 siff

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Posted 02 February 2012 - 22:58

Varan hj facebook er ekki eins augljs.


Vara Facebook er flki sem skrifar ar, egar a fer er facebook bin. Eiginlega ekki hgt a kalla etta vru.

Edited by siff, 02 February 2012 - 22:59.

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#12 appel

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Posted 02 February 2012 - 23:22

Facebook er samskiptavettvangur. flk noti hann minna er ar me ekki sagt a hann s minna mikilvgur, rtt einsog sminn, maur tali minna hann dag en fyrir nokkrum rum ir ekki a hann s orinn gagnslaus. g held ekki a Facebook s einhver bla sem bara springur og verur a engu. En maur m hafa efasemdir um hvert er hi rtta ver Facebook, hve mikils viri etta apparat er, og hverjir tekjumguleikar fyrirtkisins eru. Google fkk lka umtal fyrir nokkum rum, en enginn talar essum ntum dag um a fyrirtki.
Frelsi fr stjrnvldum ER frelsi!
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#13 jhannes bjrn

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Posted 03 February 2012 - 03:25

Facebook er samskiptavettvangur.

flk noti hann minna er ar me ekki sagt a hann s minna mikilvgur, rtt einsog sminn, maur tali minna hann dag en fyrir nokkrum rum ir ekki a hann s orinn gagnslaus.

g held ekki a Facebook s einhver bla sem bara springur og verur a engu. En maur m hafa efasemdir um hvert er hi rtta ver Facebook, hve mikils viri etta apparat er, og hverjir tekjumguleikar fyrirtkisins eru.

Google fkk lka umtal fyrir nokkum rum, en enginn talar essum ntum dag um a fyrirtki.


Facebook er sjlfsagt gtis fyrirtki, en spurningin hr er hvort ver hlutabrfanna verur teki til skjanna. a er veri a skjta 100X tekjur ... og hkarlarnir Wall Street reyna sennilega a kjafta a miklu hrra.

#14 Tembe

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Posted 03 February 2012 - 03:43

Facebook er sjlfsagt gtis fyrirtki, en spurningin hr er hvort ver hlutabrfanna verur teki til skjanna. a er veri a skjta 100X tekjur ... og hkarlarnir Wall Street reyna sennilega a kjafta a miklu hrra.

Facebook er klur og a mun sennilega koma Knversk sa ( ensku og vistu Evrpu og USA) sem toppar etta og gott betur.

Allar blur hjana ea springa nema r ver a xlum.

Edited by Tembe, 03 February 2012 - 03:46.

Kveðja,
Tembe


#15 Kjosandi

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Posted 03 February 2012 - 11:53

Bla ea ekki bla?

N er a engin spurning, etta er str bla.
Kveja fr hinum tpska slenska kjsenda!

#16 appel

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Posted 03 February 2012 - 12:23

J, etta er bla. En Facebook hverfur ekki nstu rum.
Frelsi fr stjrnvldum ER frelsi!
Frelsi, velmegun og friur!

#17 Gore Vidal

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Posted 03 February 2012 - 15:46

Facebook hefur ekkert nema skrifendur til ess a takast vi essi fyrirtki. Enga reynslu ea ekkingu eirra svium. au haggast aldrei vegna Facebook.


Facebook hefur mun meiri mguleika en essi fyrirtki, a tengja ebay mguleika til a selja blskrsdt og vinir mans kaupa og allir arir mgulega einnig. eir fru einnig ltt me a valta yfir paypal. (Pay with facebook credit)

a a hafa skrifendur er nefnilega nmer eitt tv og rj. Myspace var alltaf bara forljtt sorp sem eingngu var fyrir unglinga og hljmsveitir, facebook er minimalskt og snyrtilegt og mmur og afar geta nota a.

Google veit hversu mikla yfirburarstu facebook hefur og er v a fara lmingunum yfir google+

#18 drCronex

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Posted 12 February 2012 - 23:54

hugavert. Facebook er gt. Bur upp marga kosti, flk tjir sig og samskipti gegnum essar sur. Mlefnin eru gt. Flk tjir sig og arf ekki a vera neitt nema orin. Hvenr fara Mlefnin marka? :rolleyes:
Skilekkineitt: "Sjónhverfingar byggjast á því að dreifa athyglinni frá aðalatriðinu."
Ingimundur Kjarval: "Þegar þú setur lyftu í hús, sleppir þú ekki eftstu hæðina vegna þess að svo fáir eiga heima þar."
Apple: "...hvað sem útveggjunum líður en þeir eru hannaðir til að taka á sig lárétt álag en ekki lóðrétt."

Plasma Rarity: "Ég myndi skilgreina kjána sem einhvern sem skortir þekkingu á eitthvað málefni, en getur jafnvel verið greindur. Það er munur á kjána og vitleysing og hann er sá að vitleysingur getur haft þekkingu en skortir greind."

#19 appel

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Posted 14 February 2012 - 09:47

hugavert.
Facebook er gt.
Bur upp marga kosti, flk tjir sig og samskipti gegnum essar sur.
Mlefnin eru gt. Flk tjir sig og arf ekki a vera neitt nema orin.
Hvenr fara Mlefnin marka? :rolleyes:


Tknilega s er Facebook ekkert merkileg, hinsvegar er massinn sem er arna inni merkilegur. getur nefnilega stla a a allir sem vilja vera tengslum vi ara su arna inni. a er fjldinn sem gerir essa su vermta, hn hefur fyrir lngu n essum krtska massa flks.

essvegna er erfitt a opna svipaa su samkeppni vi Facebook, v njir fdusar ea flottara look hefur ekkert a segja. Google+ nr v a einhverju leyti, en Google hefur bara svo ga astu til ess, samt n eir ekki brot af v sem facebook hefur.
Frelsi fr stjrnvldum ER frelsi!
Frelsi, velmegun og friur!

#20 jhannes bjrn

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Posted 19 February 2012 - 11:47

By Barry Ritholtz - February 18th, 2012, 9:00AM


Less than meets the eye at Facebook


Barry Ritholtz,
Washington Post
February 11, 2012

>


Facebook is valued at plenty
By Wall Streets tech cognoscenti,
Take 1 billion friends
Times 5 dollars, then
Times IPO multiple: 20!
Limericks conomiques



Last week, I made a surprising discovery about Facebook: It has far fewer active users than it claims. I learned this from a note buried deep in the companys S1 the IPO document it filed with the SEC in order to go public. Based on its S1, the social-networking giants value is probably much less than most investors seem to think.

One advantage of working in finance is that you get to meet lots of very nice, really smart people such as David Wilson, who writes the Chart of the Day column for Bloomberg. His column is my Sudoku, as I challenge myself to poke holes in the correlations it identifies between various assets. Its good wonky fun.

On Feb. 3, the column used Facebooks SEC data to show how fast the firm was growing. FB was becoming a daily habit for more users, and the numbers from the IPO filing were extraordinary: 845 million Monthly Active Users and 483 million Daily Active Users.

MAU? DAU? I had never heard of either metric, and novel accounting for public companies is always a red flag. Dont just take my word for it, ask a Groupon investor.

I thought these metrics were suspect. If you do not have to go to Facebook.com to be counted as an active user, are the metrics misleading? I asked Wilson, who pointed to details in the S1:

Daily Active Users (DAUs). We define a daily active user as a registered Facebook user who logged in and visited Facebook through our Web site or a mobile device, or took an action to share content or activity with his or her Facebook friends or connections via a third-party Web site that is integrated with Facebook, on a given day. We view DAUs, and DAUs as a percentage of MAUs, as measures of user engagement.

Let me translate: If you clicked a Like button anywhere on the Internet, then you are a Daily Active User. Even if you never go to Facebook.com.

As huge as those MAU/DAU numbers were, I wondered how this detail might affect revenue. The Facebook metrics for annual revenue per user were stunningly modest: Facebook picks up $5 per user each year. Compare that to Google, which garners more than $30 per user per year. Netflix takes in closer to $144. Is this why Facebooks annual revenues are so low compared to its 850 million user base?

Why does this user-behavior metric matter? Consider what it means in terms of how daily users will generate revenue and profits. If all users do is click a Like button, but never make it to Facebook.com, they cannot be monetized. They cannot be marketed to. They do not see any advertising. They cannot be sold any goods or services. They take advantage of FBs extensive infrastructure to tell their FB friends (who may or may not see what they did) that they liked something online. Thats all that happens.

So they not only fail to generate revenue for Facebook that day, but they are actually a cost. Its not cheap to maintain that massive infrastructure of Like buttons everywhere. Someones got to pay for the server farms that handle the back-end of this.

Consider what happened when MySpace tried to increase profits from users. With lots of pressure to drive revenue, they doubled the ads on the site. As they tried to monetize users, the site became ad-congested, a real eyesore. Users left in droves.

So how does this play into Facebooks sky-high valuation? The companys worth has been pushed ever higher by a series of private deals, all made before the SEC filing was made public. Microsoft made a well-timed investment of $240 million in 2008 at a $15 billion level; Elevation Partners paid $120 million at a value of $23 billion in June 2010. Goldman Sachs poured up to $2 billion into the social network at a $50 billion valuation in January 2011. All of these private investments were made by sophisticated investors, but without the benefit of the SEC data.

A year ago, I offered five questions for Facebook private investors:

FB claimed (in January 2011) 500 million subscribers. How many of these are active users at least once or twice a week? How many of these are dead accounts, with no activity for 30 days, 90 days or more?

What is the average revenue per subscriber? How are you planning to grow this?

How much churn does Facebook go through? For every 100 new subscribers, how many subscribers leave?

What is the life cycle of the typical Facebook subscriber? How active are they for how long; what sort of arc do they cut across their FB life cycle?

Besides advertising, how will you monetize your user base? Are you selling their data to buyers? What about anonymized data are you selling this also?

Last month, I compiled a new list for Facebook IPO investors. Those of you thinking of buying Facebooks IPO at these rich valuations should be comfortable with the answers to these:

What is the IPO offering price going to be? What market capitalization will FB come public at?

What are the key pricing metrics? P/E, growth rate, price to book, price to sales?

What is FBs growth potential? At 800 million users, where do they begin to plateau? Top out?

What is FBs plan for penetrating China?

How are the privacy concerns going to be handled? What else might come out of the closer FTC scrutiny of Web firms use of personal data?

How long are insiders/VCs going to be locked up? Are they committed to holding onto shares for the long haul, or are they cashing out at the IPO or as soon as possible thereafter?

What I learned from Facebooks filing was that they have 161 million active users who actually go to Facebook.com each month. Thats not shabby but its a far cry from the MAU claims of 850 million. That definition of active users is probably overstated by a factor of 500 percent. I suspect that the $100 billion valuation may be overstated by nearly as much.

Me? Im sitting this one out.

Edited by jhannes bjrn, 19 February 2012 - 11:51.





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